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Trajectory Patterns of Dental Caries Experience in the Permanent Dentition to the Fourth Decade of Life

¹ Department of Oral Sciences, Faculty of Dentistry, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; and
² Director, Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand

^* corresponding author, jonathan.broadbent{at}stonebow.otago.ac.nz

Dental caries is a chronic, cumulative disease, but no studies have investigated longitudinal patterns of caries experience. The objective of this study was to identify and describe developmental trajectories of caries experience in the permanent dentition to age 32. Longitudinal caries data for 955 participants in a longstanding birth cohort study were analyzed by trajectory analysis. Three caries experience trajectories were identified by the SAS macro PROC TRAJ; these were categorized as "high" (~ 15%), "medium" (~ 43%), and "low" (~ 42%) DMFS (Decayed, Missing, and Filled Surfaces). All were relatively linear, although the higher trajectories were more "S-shaped". This effect disappeared following adjustment for the number of unaffected surfaces remaining at each age, suggesting that, among individuals following a similar caries trajectory, caries rate is relatively constant across time.

KEY WORDS: longitudinal study • adult • trajectory analysis • caries